Measuring a Release, Minute by Minute · FxPro UAE — FxPro United Arab Emirates 2026

CPI, Core CPI n.s.a. m/m, CPI y/y, Core CPI m/m — 14 Jul 2026, 16:30 GST

Definitions: quiet spread = median of the 15 minutes before the release; peak = widest single quote after it. All-in = peak spread × pip value + $7 round-turn Raw+ commission ($3.50/side, 1 lot) — quiet EUR/USD all-in is $9 ($2 spread + $7 commission). Peak vs daily range = peak spread as a share of the instrument’s average daily range. Back to normal = first quote under 1.5× the quiet median. * Gold always runs wide relative to FX, so its share of daily range is small and it “recovers” almost instantly by this measure. Times in GST.

What printed

Values as published by the platform calendar feed (its own scale — e.g. payrolls in thousands).

All six instruments, minute by minute

Each cell is the average spread of that minute as a multiple of the quiet median — the instant peaks in the table above are single quotes inside minute 0, so a ×4 minute average and a ×18 instant peak describe the same event.

Tick density across instruments ran ×1.4–×2.2 the usual rate in the release minute; everything is flat again by about +2 minutes.

Stops that survive the spike

FxPro’s measured stops level is 0 points on all six instruments — stops and straddle orders can sit at any distance. The practical floor during a release is the spread itself: at this print an EUR/USD stop closer than about 13.8 pips could have been filled by the spread alone, with price effectively unmoved, and a gold stop inside 225 points ($2.25) was equally exposed. The 1.5× buffer over the measured peak covers the post-peak chop before quotes settle.

Every release we have measured (47 windows since Jul 2026)

This history grows automatically: every high-impact release is captured once and kept.

A release moves one side faster than the other

A quote is two prices, and around a release they do not widen symmetrically. One side steps away while the other holds, and which one it is decides whether a buyer or a seller pays for the moment.

That asymmetry is invisible on a chart drawing a single line. The candle looks like one price moving quickly; what is happening underneath is two prices separating.

Which orders are exposed at the print

A protective order on a long is triggered from the lower side of the quote and one on a short from the upper side. During a release the side that is not drawn can travel a long way for a few seconds without leaving a mark on the candles.

Pending entries have the same geometry: a buy order is activated from the upper side and a sell from the lower one, so a level can be triggered by a price the chart never shows you afterwards.

Measuring a moment, not a day

A release is recorded minute by minute because that is the resolution at which it happens; a daily average erases the event completely. The record keeps the run-up, the print and the settling apart rather than averaging them into one line.

Reading it as three phases is what makes it usable. Which phase you are exposed to depends on whether your order was already sitting in the market when the number landed.

Narrowing the list before a release

A scheduled announcement does not move the whole catalogue. It moves a handful of symbols, and the rest of the list widens slightly and settles back without ever becoming interesting.

Choosing those symbols in advance turns a release from something that happens to a screen full of rows into something that happens to four or five you are watching on purpose.

What the record cannot promise

A measured widening describes what the feed showed around announcements that have already happened. It is not a forecast of the next one and it is not a ceiling: the two sides can separate further than anything already recorded.

Used honestly it sets expectations — which side tends to run, roughly how long the gap lasts, and whether a plan that depends on a fixed distance between the two prices was ever a plan at all.

Orders already sitting in the market

A pending order placed before an announcement does not care what the candles look like afterwards. It is activated the moment the side that triggers it touches the level — a buy from the upper side, a sell from the lower one.

So an entry can be filled during the widest second of the release and then appear, on the chart drawn afterwards, to have been triggered by nothing at all. The order was reading a price the chart was not drawing.

Reading the record before the next one

The value of a release archive is not in any single row. It is in the shape that repeats: which instruments widen, roughly how long the gap stays open, and how quickly the two sides come back together once the number is public.

Read that way it becomes a preparation tool rather than a post-mortem. The watchlist for the next announcement is chosen from what the previous ones actually moved, not from what the calendar says is important.

Watching a release without guessing the side

1. Pick the four or five symbols the announcement actually concerns and clear the rest out of Market Watch.
2. Switch on the spread column so the distance between the two sides is visible as a number.
3. Enable the Ask line on the chart so the side that usually runs is drawn.
4. Read the minimum distance an order may sit from the price in the symbol specification.
5. Decide which side each of your orders will be triggered from before the print, not during it.
6. Note the release time in the server clock as well as your own.
7. Watch the settling as closely as the spike — the gap closing is part of the event.

None of this is an argument for trading an announcement. It is the cost side of that decision, stated as mechanics.

Which side is watching your order during a release

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